Tuesday 26 November 2013

Stable growth key to Myanmar's future

I recently returned from a visit to Myanmar. Compared to previous visits in April 2009 when Myanmar was under the military junta and in April 2011 when the democratically elected government had just taken office, the country, which is undergoing political reform and an economic opening-up, has impressed me with its huge potential for development.

Strolling through Myanmar's big cities like Yangon and Mandalay, you feel like you are visiting cosmopolitan cities.

New models of cars have replaced the rust buckets that had been on the road for two or three decades. Traffic jams have become commonplace. Smartphones, the Internet, large-scale supermarkets and even credit cards have all become common.

Myanmar has dispensed with its previous system of censorship, allowing the publication of many private newspapers. The streets of Yangon are covered with billboards of foreign brands and posters for the 27th Southeast Asian Games - the first international sports event hosted by the new government.

Nonetheless, the country is now confronted with the question of how to balance the interests of the public and social stability in light of the sudden burst of the long suppressed public desire for democracy.

Power shortages are a blight on Myanmar's economy and society. At this point, only the capital, Nay Pyi Taw, has managed to ensure a 24-hour electricity supply. Frequent power outages in Yangon and Mandalay are still one of the biggest obstacles in preventing foreign investment from flowing into the country.

Development has led to a surge in demand for electricity, but the Myanmar government lacks the funds to build power stations.

Myanmar electricity authorities recently proposed increasing charges for electricity, but this idea was abandoned due to strong opposition from MPs and the public.

After the suspension of the Chinese-invested Myitsone dam project, the development of hydropower has been slowed down due to the reluctance of foreign investors to participate. The power shortages will constrain the economic development of Myanmar in the long run.

Economic imbalances also affect the stability of the country. Big cities have gained momentum in terms of economic development. A small number of rich people live luxurious lifestyles with villas and limousines, but over half of the population is made up of poor farmers, who have received little benefit from the reforms.

Real estate prices in Yangon are among the highest in Southeast Asia, with starred hotel prices soaring from $50 for a standard room in 2011 to nearly $200 now.

Fragile local industries mean ordinary commodities mainly consist of imports. High education and healthcare costs have put these services out of reach of many families.

Besides, when I talked to locals during my recent trip, many expressed their concerns about the impacts of ethnic and religious conflicts on reforms.

I came to Myanmar at a time when senior representatives of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation were arriving at the Yangon International Airport. Thousands of Buddhists protested at the airport and on the streets, demanding they leave the country. There are still no easy solutions to the ethnic and religious problems in the country.

In addition, Myanmar hasn't been able to reconcile violent conflicts between its government and local armed ethnic forces. A new round of peace talks has been moved outside of Myanmar to Chiang Mai. This demonstrates a lack of trust between the two sides.

Some are also worried that the constitutional amendment will trigger radical struggles. The biggest opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), holds that the 2008 constitution is deficient in many respects.

They have demanded revisions to articles that prevent NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi from running for the presidency.

Meanwhile, ethnic groups long for more autonomy through constitutional revision.

Myanmar elites say that the interests of many groups must be balanced and that sweeping changes risk plunging the country into turbulence.

Stability is a prerequisite for reform. Myanmar faces severe challenges in political, economic, social and ethnic fields. For Myanmar, finding ways to promote the rule of law and ensure smooth reform is an urgent problem.

The author is a research fellow on Myanmar studies in the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

source: Global Times

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